Baby Boomers Will Suck Massive Amounts Of Capital From The Market, Says Demographic Expert

By FS Staff

Baby Boomers have been a huge tailwind for equities and bonds from the 1980s until today, but now as they exit the workforce and increasingly move into retirement, this monumental demographic shift will exert enormous pressure on interest rates, bond prices, and equity market valuations.

This is the thesis of Will Denyer at Gavekal Research who we spoke with on our FS Insider podcast last week (see Major Demographic Shift Underway Spells Trouble for Bond Market).

Here’s what he had to say…

WWII to Present

From 1946 to 1980, we saw a booming population that resulted in increased demand for houses, schools, cars, and a wide range of consumer goods and services, Denyer stated. This created a tendency for upward pressure in prices and interest rates.

“Then everything reversed basically in the early 1980s,” he said. Boomers entered the workforce en masse and, starting around 35 years of age, Boomers entered their peak production, peak earnings, and peak savings period, which led to an abundance of production and capital, placing downward pressure on consumer prices and interest rates.

Savings not only bid up the price of bonds while driving down yields but also bid up the valuation of equities. What developed was a long-term bull market in bonds and equities.

“The broad story is that from the early 1980s until today, you didn’t have to get that creative to have a positive return,” Denyer said. “That’s the world that we’ve all grown accustomed to. For the last 35 years, we’ve had a secular rise in bonds, a secular rise in equities and a secular softening of inflation. But we shouldn’t count on that lasting forever.”

10 year treasury yield

Turning Point Imminent

Based on global demographic data weighted as judiciously as possible, Denyer believes we are experiencing a turning point right about now.

The peak may have arguably already occurred in 2014 or 2015. There’s a significant margin of error and other factors that affect this outcome, but this demographic shift is likely occurring soon.

As a result, the secular bull trends we’ve grown accustomed to may not carry forward.

“The middle age providers are seeing their share shrink,” Denyer said, also adding that “the amount of savings being provided to the system is going to wane relative to demand.”

The difference now is that demand is skewed to the elderly population. That has interesting implications for inflation, he noted.

Services, Not Goods, Inflation

We’ll continue to see more services inflation and fewer goods inflation, as a result, because the elderly tend to consume more services and fewer goods.

“Where that leaves inflation going forward is an open question,” Denyer said. “It may not accelerate like it did in the 1960s and 1970s. But when it comes to investors deciding what to do in terms of interest rates … the decline in savings suggests that real rates should rise.”

If inflation picks up, it would just exaggerate the trend of rising nominal rates. If it softens, it might counter that trend, and interest rates may not actually rise much in nominal terms.

“My hunch at this point is that inflation is likely to be either flat or see some upward pressure,” he said. “I have a hard time believing that inflation is going to decline enough from here to offset the rise in real rates. That leaves me with a pretty cautious, bearish view on long-term fixed income.”

Equity Multiples Coming Down

The current high equity multiples are partially explained by the 1980s demographic tailwind, but that is reversing.

While timing is difficult, structurally, Denyer expects that over the next several decades, we will see equity multiples fall.

With population growth stagnating, he has a hard time believing earnings are going to be very strong, though some sectors, such as healthcare, may retain strong earnings, as Baby Boomers are likely to consume more services and fewer goods.

“I think it’s going to be a huge wakeup call,” he said. “Today, what I would recommend is making strategic bets to areas that you see demand growth happening, but hedge that with some cash or short-term Treasuries.”

What constitutes sexual harassment and how to deal with it

A century ago, women fought for the vote. Fifty years later, they seized power in personal and professional relationships: they won divorce, abortion and contraception rights, as well as the right to equal employment opportunities and pay.

Today, the war is still raging – but the battleground has, once again, shifted. For the millennial generation, the focus is widespread sexual harassment and institutional silence over the abuse of women. Around 52 per cent of women say they have been harassed at work – and young women are determined to fight the trend.  

2017 has proved a turning point. Following the Harvey Weinstein revelations, the #MeToo campaign has brought down a host of sleazy men in politics, Hollywood and the media. 

Middle Aged Baby Boomers And Addiction – The Fastest Growing Population

A woman enters my office disheveled, thin, mid sisters, with hollow eyes. It is as if the sparkle in her eyes ceased to exist a very long time ago. She tells me she has been drinking and is using methamphetamines. I am not surprised to hear this because lately my practice has been filled with middle aged baby boomers seeking help for their serious addictions. Whether it is alcohol, cocaine, crack, methamphetamines, pain killers, heroine, or smoking marijuana, many have crossed the line into addiction. Their lives have become unmanageable and they have lost their ability to control their use. Some believe they can just cut down, but as addiction specialists, we know it is impossible once you have crossed that invisible line into dependency. One of their defense mechanisms is "denial" so they can still continue their love affair with drugs or alcohol. Addiction is the only disease that tells them in the most insidious of ways, "I do not have a problem or disease." It can be very difficult treating someone who does not think they have a problem. However, on some level this particular woman who landed in my office may already know an issue exists, but can not bare to admit it.

So what brings this middle aged woman into see me with such desperation on her face? Her husband has told her if she does not stop using, he will leave her and take the children with him. She tells me she can not imagine not using meth. "It gives me energy to deal with my four kids and keeps my weight down." I am sure it might be hard to believe that someone in middle age, a soccer mom and a wife feels this way. It is no longer teenagers or urban minorities taking the lead, although there still is an epidemic of young addicts out there. These all American business men, stay at home moms, career women and even the elderly are filling the treatment centers and therapists offices and some, never make it. In a recent study, it was revealed that drug deaths from illicit drug over doses had risen 800 per cent since 1980. One of the fastest growing abuses is pain killers with suburbia filled with these individuals. It has long been known that there are many reasons for the abuse, but for the middle aged the reasons may be not only the genetic predisposition, but as a buffer to numb the pain of divorce, un-employment, an empty nest, retirement, trauma or illness. Depression may be one of the largest culprits to addiction, with it being the highest amongst the ages of 45 to 60.

The "free love" generation of "sex, drugs, and rock 'n roll" has taken a turn; many would have never expected drug addiction to be their legacy. Often long standing drug abusers find when the marijuana stops working; they often go to stronger drugs. For some it is losing their children, a job, a spouse, or homelessness that leads them to seek help.

If you think you have a problem or know someone who does, contact a therapist, psychiatrist, and or chemical dependency counselor to assess the problem. You can also call one of your local alcohol or narcotics anonymous offices for resources. There are 12 step meetings going on all day every day. However, if the addiction or alcohol abuse is serious enough, a detox, a residential treatment center, or a dual diagnosis program may be the best treatment. A dual diagnosis program works with patients who have not only an addiction, but a mental illness, as well. The detox may be medically necessary and should always be assessed and treated. Some of the signs of chemical dependency include tolerance, which is a need for increased amounts of the substance to get the desired effect, withdrawal symptoms, a persistent desire to cut down or control the substance but can not, spending lots of time obtaining the substance, continued use systematic psychological or physical problems. And finally, social, occupational, and or recreational activities are given up or reduced because of the substance use.

There are many professionals out there to help. Just like the women who entered my office confused and ambivalent, a first step was taken in her battling the disease and beginning the recovery process.

Baby-Boomer Trends, by Christine Brun

Still a large part of the American home-buying public, baby boomers drive a significant segment of the housing development industry. What do boomers want, and what are they willing to spend to get it? The generation is nearly as large as that of their millennial children and as diverse in lifestyle choices.

According to statistics, many baby boomers may not be able to retire at 65. There are numerous reasons, from never recovering from the 2007-2009 Great Recession, to struggling with outrageous college tuitions, to losing a job. Others could retire in the traditional way but are looking at their senior years from a fresh perspective. They are choosing encore careers or staying in their profession part-time. This unique view of retirement creates a need for new housing and community models.

Some $8 trillion, or almost two-thirds of the nation’s home equity, is held by the 74.9 million people who comprise the baby-boom generation. According to TRI Pointe Group, a network of regional homebuilders, 50 percent of these home shoppers over the age of 55 would consider living in an age-restricted community, but research shows that 53 percent of them cannot find the kind of gripping and vital community they desire.

Obviously, some people become frustrated by the search for a new home and opt to stay put and remodel. If you’ve ever lived through a major remodel, you appreciate the serious amount of work that goes into it! What discourages some from embracing a remodel is the quantity of unknowns. Facing a detailed project may not be comfortable for a lot of older Americans; they might prefer to shop in new communities where they can see, feel and experience the completed house instead.

Across the nation you will find homebuilders who are developing within a half-hour of major urban areas. On the East Coast is the Winchester Homes 55-plus neighborhood within the all-age master plan of Two Rivers in Odenton, Maryland. It offers 168 Craftsman-style homes close to Washington, D.C., Baltimore and Annapolis, Maryland. The homes offer low-maintenance living while providing loads of private outdoor living spaces with patios and balconies. Residents enjoy the main level owner’s suite and everyday living on the main floor. An upstairs loft with basements and an optional elevator is available. The cozy kitchen and open dining/living room are shown here.

Out west in Santa Clarita, California, about 35 miles northwest of downtown Los Angeles, we find another development called Skyline Ranch by Pardee Homes. It is optimized for boomers and situated within an all-age community encompassing 492 acres and 1,220 home sites. The location offers access to employment in the nearby San Fernando Valley and the entire Los Angeles basin. This community features multiple recreations centers and miles of hiking and biking trails. The first home deliveries are expected in 2019.

Some 25 miles from downtown Phoenix, Maracay Homes offers a neighborhood called Victory at Verrado. Thoughtful architectural elements include Flex Design options, such as a guest suite for visitors or an income-producing space. Community amenities include a Life Performance Training Center, a yoga lawn, a lap pool, movement studios and three resort-style pools. There is a trail system for all fitness levels, as well as freeway access to community employment centers, shopping, dining and entertainment.

“This group has waited their entire lives to be in the position they are now in, where amenities and lifestyle opportunities in a close in location near family and employment are key to a full and enriching life,” said Tom Mitchell, president and COO of TRI Pointe Group.

Photo Credit: Maxine Schnitzer Photography

Christine Brun, ASID, is a San Diego based interior designer and author of “Small Space Living.” Send questions and comments to her by email at [email protected] To find out more about Christine Brun and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.

Top 5 Benefits of a Baby Video Monitor

Baby monitors are one of the most vital pieces of parenting equipment that any parent can possibly own. Indeed, the security, convenience, intensive mode and peace of mind that these devices provide is truly unparalleled by any other tool of recent times. Audio baby monitors are useful, but the advanced functionality and detailed information that video monitors give are of great help to parents. Anyone shopping for baby monitors should keep in mind the following top five benefits of these devices.

1. Time-to-time detection of baby’s movements

While every parent has their own tried-and-tested methods of baby care, a major signal for some parents to decide whether or not to comfort the awakened child in the crib, is to first note whether the infant has stood up or is still lying in the crib. Sleep training in general requires that the child still gets opportunities to self-soothe itself before the father or mother intervenes to comfort him. The timely visual information provided by the baby video monitor is crucial to the decision made by parents of entering the nursery to comfort the child. When parents view in the monitor, that their awakened child is lying down in the crib, they can hold on for few minutes before intervening, this itself is of great value to the sleep training process.

2. Saves time, energy & Increases convenience

Video monitors keep parents updated with instant visual information of the baby’s movements and behavior, even when they are meters away from the nursery. By knowing that their infant is sleeping peacefully and has not awakened yet, parents need not rush into the nursery every hour to check on their baby and can thus give themselves the much needed rest for the night. This is of special concern since parents usually have a tough time juggling their roles of an all-time caregiver and a part-time professional. Thus for them, the night’s sleep is of great value and every minute counts.

3. Accurate tracking of sleep

Small babies while crying usually toss and turn. Audio monitors may not be able to pick their whimpers or sounds of turning in the crib, as it may be difficult for them to differentiate between low frequency baby sounds and other background noise. A video monitor on the other hand, shows parents exactly what is happening even when the infant seems to be asleep.

4. Cloud services & sharing

High-end video monitors can connect to the internet network of home in order to transmit video clips through WiFi. The presence of a WiFi camera allows parents to login easily and view these captured feeds through internet connection, from any part of the world. Such a convenient technology allows them to check on their tiny tots from their workplace, or when out of town.

5. Extra level of security

Video monitors provide similar level of security as that of security cameras. They alert the parents whenever the child has stood up, bumped its head or fallen accidentally. They also enable them to view whether their children are getting the required level of care by their nannies or not.

Thus, to summarize these aforementioned benefits, it may be rightful to say, that a kid video monitor should top the list of your baby care items. It offers effective vigilance of your baby’s motions and activities and alerts you on the same to prevent untoward accidents.

No, it’s not the housing crisis dividing baby boomers and millennials

Labour’s small opinion poll lead has become Westminster’s biggest talking point. The government is divided and muddled over Brexit, has lost two cabinet ministers in less than two weeks, and is mired in scandal. Yet the opposition can only manage an average lead of a little under 2 per cent.

Or are they? ITV’s Paul Brand reports that a senior Conservative has told him that according to their private polling, Labour are actually miles ahead – 12 points in fact. Could a secret poll really reveal a much bigger Labour lead than the public polls suggest? Some thoughts:

Nothing has changed because… nothing has changed

Labour’s small lead obsesses Westminster because from the daily grind here, it appears that the Tory position has got much worse since the election. So a secret poll showing Labour well ahead is satisfying to commentators because it fits with the general sense of how things “should” be.

But zoom out for a moment: the Conservative position hasn’t really changed all that much since June 2017. The economy is not performing noticeably worse than it was in June. The Brexit talks are not any more deadlocked and rudderless than they were in June. Yes, a couple of people have resigned from the cabinet. I rate Priti Patel a lot more highly than many in Westminster but I doubt very much that a significant bloc of voters knew who she or Michael Fallon were, much less cared about them staying in post.

There’s a very important “but” here, which is that it is easy to see how the economy will get worse or the Brexit talks will suddenly enter a period of economically damaging crisis. I may be letting my pro-Remain filtered glasses dominate my analysis too much here, but it feels to me at least that the moment when you might expect Labour to break clear of the Conservatives in the polls has not yet arrived.

I really don’t think polls are all that useful this far out

The thing about voting intention is it’s a lot like asking people, “Which do you prefer: tea or coffee?” Most people will have a strong response in the abstract that may be different given the context. I, for example, vastly prefer tea, but know that the average shop-bought cup of tea will either have been brewed too long or too little, that it won’t be milky enough, etcetera, etcetera. Given all of that, I’ll settle for coffee more often than not when I’m out and about.

As it is highly unlikely that there will be an election for some time, worrying about the polls at this point feels a bit like focusing on whether or not I’m likely to have an Earl Grey or a cappuccino next Wednesday. A great deal could, and likely will, change at that point. The interesting polling questions are the underlying ones about economic competence, best PM, and what people consider a “good” Brexit deal.  (And even then the first two feel somewhat useless as it is highly unlikely that Jeremy Corbyn will be facing Theresa May again next time.)

The more important electoral factor to think about is that thanks to their forward advance in the general election, Labour would have to be the worst-performing opposition ever not to end up in some form of government next time. The Conservatives really would have to do something truly remarkable to stay in office after 2022. And even to tread water they have to (a) deliver a Brexit deal that keeps their 2017 electoral coalition intact, (b) doesn’t hit the economy, and (c) keeps their party together.  Oh, and they also need to avoid a recession, which is in any case is probably about due even if all goes well with Brexit, as we haven’t had one for a while and we tend to have one every decade.

For the Tories, holding onto power a big ask, to put it mildly, and a much more interesting topic than what the polls are doing five years out.

That said, I don’t buy that this poll is real myself

So despite the fact that I can easily see how when the next election comes around, the Labour Party could emerge with a big lead, I doubt this poll is real, for a couple of reasons. The first is that the pattern in local council by-elections, which picked up on the uptick in Labour fortunes during late May this year, fits with the polls: Ukip collapsing, Labour devouring the Green vote, the Liberal Democrats treading water and neither of the big two able to pull ahead.

But the much more important reason is I can’t see why on earth Conservative headquarters would be commissioning nationwide polls of voting intention, particularly this far away from a contest. Voting intention is not all that useful to political parties, as no matter how bad the figures are, “give up and go home at 5pm” is not really an option. Private polls tend to focus on what parties can’t get elsewhere – that is to say, on questions about policy trade-offs, which of the other side’s voters are winnable, which of their own voters are looking elsewhere, and so on. (It’s not as if they can’t see the same polls we all can of voting intention for free.)

So while it is not impossible, it doesn’t feel that likely that this poll would exist. But given how grim the Tory mood is, it is easy to see how rumours that things are really much worse than the public polls can take hold, even close to the top of the party. 

Swimming As Exercise For Baby Boomers

More and more people today are looking towards getting healthyier so it is no surprise that baby boomers are also jumping on the get healthy band wagon. One of the most popular forms of exercise among the baby boomers seems to be swimming. This is one of the least strenuous forms of exercise and you can get in a full workout without over working your body.

Most people do not realize all of the benefits that can be obtained from swimming. Swimming and water exercise is the second best form of exercise that has the lowest rate for injuries. Walking is still the leader in that aspect for low injury rates. There are a great many doctors who will recommend that you do water exercises so that you can strengthen your muscles without harming your recovery from illness or injury. Swimming is great physical therapy for people of all ages no matter what their current physical condition is.

Baby boomers like swimming as it allows them to utilize almost all of their major muscle groups at the same time, so that they can get a complete total body workout with minimal strain. The water works as a great form of resistance so that you can use it as strength training and even for aerobic exercises. The baby boomers like water fitness as it can work well for people of all fitness levels. It can help people strengthen their muscles and build up their endurance as well as making them much more flexible.

Many people are not aware that swimming actually provides almost all of the same effects as running does. The difference between running and swimming is that you are not putting a strain on your connective tissues as you do when you are running or doing weight training. Many baby boomers find that swimming allows them to easily maintain the fitness lever or improve on it as well. You can also do exercise in water more often then you could if you were doing them out of water because the amount of injuries is so low. When you are in water, your body weight is reduced my near 90% of your movements are 12 times greater then just doing them in the air, therefore you can do much more while in the water.

If you are from the baby boomer era then you will want to look into swimming as a recreational activity. Water fitness such as swimming is safe and it will help you to fill your need for exercise. You can also increase your range of motion with this low impact type of exercise. As with starting any type of new exercise program, you should check with your doctor to be sure that you are doing the right thing. Your doctor can recommend some water exercises that are right for your particular fitness level so that you do not over do it. You can also look into local recreational facilities to see if they offer swimming classes or water fitness classes that you can get in on. Many times you can find a class that is for your age group as well as your fitness level.

Risk Of Age-Related Illnesses Decrease For Baby Boomers

Since the start of the 20th century a person’s chance of getting age-related macular degeneration has declined significantly, according to a University of Wisconsin-Madison eye doctor studying the disease.

Since 1988, researchers have followed more than 4,800 adults in Dodge County, between the ages of 43 and 84, who were at risk for age-related macular degeneration. Risk factors include being over age 50, having a family member with the disease and smoking, according to the American Academy of Ophthalmology.

“We had a unique opportunity here in Wisconsin because the community of Beaver Dam has been participating in this eye study since the late 1980s,”  said Karen Cruickshanks, lead author of the study and professor of ophthalmology and visual sciences at the University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health. “Community response has been tremendous,” said Cruickshanks.

Over the course of three decades, researchers studied multiple generations. With baby boomers now turning 65, there’s been concern that cases of age-related macular degeneration would soar. But the study published in JAMA Ophthalmology showed this generation has a 60 percent lower chance of losing their eyesight to this disease than their parents.

Macular degeneration is the leading cause of vision loss in older adults. A person can’t see looking straight ahead because the center part of the retina is damaged, according to the American Academy of Ophthalmology.

Unlike cataracts, which can be treated surgically, it’s hard to treat macular degeneration successfully so there’s a high risk for vision loss.

“There’s new treatments emerging all the time so there’s been tremendous progress made, but for many people there is vision loss with this disease so it’s a very important disorder,” said Cruickshanks.

The study doesn’t pinpoint a particular reason for the decline in risk of getting the disease. The study controlled for changes in smoking behavior and heart disease but that did not explain the drop.

“So there must be some other factors that we’re missing,” said Cruickshanks. “And there’s been a lot of speculation that as we’re living longer health has improved because of the cumulative changes that  have occurred throughout the 20th century — improvements in water and air quality and nutrition, in maternal and child healthcare care. So you get a better start in life, all this may play a role as well as improvements in medical care.”

Cruickshanks says this is good news for Baby Boomers, especially those who’ve witnessed how difficult it was for their parents to cope with macular degeneration.

Watch Me Work: Pink & White Baby Boomer Acrylic Nails



Simple super long coffin set

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All acrylic mixes used in the video are home made
Glitters from Michaels crafts store
IBD No Wipe Top Coat
Enail Couture Cotton Candy Cuticle Oil

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Baby boomer efecto espejo. by sabrina”



hola chicas espero les guste este diseño en efecto espejo es un baby boomer., muy facil de realizar. espero puedan recrearlo y asta la proxima.

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